Looks like another war is coming — Iran — will this one finally bite the United States' conceited self?

08 May 2019

Riskier than it looks

I'm a proponent of the strategic idea that it is undesirable to give competent adversaries room and reason to maneuver. I am also cautious about prodding unpredictable situations into potentially explosive escalation.

Yet, the Trump Administration is doing both with regard to Iran.

This may end painfully — even for us

American strategic cluelessness is forcing our alleged adversaries to visibly connect to one other.

This curiously self-destructive process recently got a boost from the Trump Administration's rejection of American adherence to the Iranian nuke deal. That's the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

It escalated when the US began threatening other nations into not buying Iranian oil. The Chinese, prominently, were not happy.

Then a couple of days ago, the US announced that it is sending an aircraft carrier group Iran's way. American leadership justified the provocation by (probably untruthfully) saying that Iran had threatened to attack US forces.

And Iran, in predictable reply, said that (after 60 days) it will begin holding onto its enriched uranium. This would violate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action:

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani . . . . added that he would wait 60 days to take further action, giving other nations that are still part of the nuclear agreement the option of engaging with Tehran on trade or following Trump in abandoning the deal.

The White House announced sanctions on the steel, iron, aluminum and copper sectors of the country hours after . . . .

"It is also the policy of the United States to deny the Iranian government revenue, including revenue derived from the export of products from Iran's iron, steel, aluminum, and copper sectors, that may be used to provide funding and support for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorist groups and networks, campaigns of regional aggression, and military expansion."

The sanctions could impact other countries conducting trade with Iran, and Trump warned in a statement that the executive order "puts other nations on notice that allowing Iranian steel and other metals into your ports will no longer be tolerated."

Summing the American attitude up

If y'all don't do what America says, we're gonna tear you a new . . . .

Whether this hormonal approach will be productive — remains to be seen

Apartheid and warmongering Israel is (no doubt) delighted.

Evangelical Christians, too. Armageddon's at hand. Jesus "gonna" float in after.

On the other hand

More sensible nations may see American actions as steps too far.

Russia has already announced that it expects Europeans to continue honoring the Iranian nuke deal. Recall, for emphasis, that Russia arguably outwitted the United States in Syria.

China exhibited the same barbed caution:

Upon being informed of Iran's decision Wednesday, China also criticized the U.S. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang told reporters, "We regret that the U.S. moves have heightened tensions surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue."

"It is the shared responsibility of all parties to uphold and implement the JCPOA," Geng added.

"We call on relevant sides to exercise restraint and step up dialogue to prevent a spiral of escalating tensions. China will maintain communication with all parties concerned and continue to work toward upholding and implementing the agreement. At the same time, we will stand firm in safeguarding the legal and legitimate interests of Chinese enterprises."

Translated, the Chinese statement means:

You Americans are not going to harm our economy. Or our independence of action. Just 'cause you got your meat-filled knickers in a twist.

Notice that

American strategy has managed to make loose allies of the United States' two most militarily competent competitors.

(However in fairness to Trumpian tacticians, I doubt that Europe is bold enough to stand against American stick-waving. We know a patsy, when we see one. Germany included.)

The moral? — American warmongering may be over-reaching

Following Israel's increasingly insane lead seems (to me) to be a mistake. At least so, when assessed from the perspective of the United States' true national interests. Were I in Russian or Chinese leadership, I would probably relish this opportunity to wile American meathead-ism.

PeteFree.com

Looks like another war is coming — Iran — will this one finally bite the United States' conceited self?