Confirmation from the New England Journal of Medicine — as Things Stand, Ebola Is on Its Way to Endemicity in Africa

© 2014 Peter Free

 

23 September 2014

 

 

Last week, I warned that ebola virus seemed to be on its way to endemicity in (at least) Africa

 

Today, the New England Journal of Medicine published an expert analysis that agrees:

 

 

Forward projections suggest that unless control measures — including improvements in contact tracing, adequate case isolation, increased capacity for clinical management, safe burials, greater community engagement, and support from international partners — improve quickly, these three countries will soon be reporting thousands of cases and deaths each week . . . .

 

For the medium term, at least, we must therefore face the possibility that EVD [ebola virus disease] will become endemic among the human population of West Africa, a prospect that has never previously been contemplated.

 

The risk of continued epidemic expansion and the prospect of endemic EVD in West Africa call for the most forceful implementation of present control measures and for the rapid development and deployment of new drugs and vaccines.

 

© 2014 WHO Ebola Response Team, Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections, New England Journal of Medicine, DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100 (23 September 2014) (at last paragraph under Discussion) (extracts)

 

 

A 70 percent ebola fatality rate — in Guinea, Libera and Sierra Leone

 

I do not think that  ISIS/ISIL/Islamic State — America’s currently silly evil of the month — can come close to matching that level of indiscriminate deadliness across such a wide region. Or with such profoundly negative implications for global health security.

 

 

The moral? — Where Africa’s misery is concerned, the developed world’s Establishment always seems to be asleep, holding its wallet

 

Or elevating less imminent problems into resource-depleting political emergencies.